gbp

Cable softer on MPC minutes

GBPUSD around 40 pips lower to 1.5090 after minutes to May BoE meeting show 3 members still voting for more QE. EURGBP to 0.8574. Retail sales fell 1.4% in April according to data released at the same time.
Per saperne di più »

22/05/2013 @ 08:35 GMT

Timing the Fed exit

Data/Event Risks GBP: The market will focus on the minutes of the May MPC meeting for signs of a softening from those pushing for more asset purchases over the past 3 months. With growth upgraded and inflation projections downgraded and the Governor sounding modestly more confident, we could well see a scaling back of those voting for more QE. This would provide some support for sterling after yesterday’s sell-off.
Per saperne di più »

22/05/2013 @ 07:16 GMT

Sterling down on weaker CPI data

GBPUSD down 35 pips to 1.5190 after better than expected CPI data, headline rate now 2.4% and first time for nearly a year that inflation better than expected.
Per saperne di più »

21/05/2013 @ 08:36 GMT

More good news for sterling?

Data/Event Risks GBP: The inflation data today will be a key focus, with PPI (producer prices) also released. We would agree with the market view that CPI inflation should moderate from 2.8% to 2.6%. If seen, this would be the first fall in headline inflation for 7 months. For now, it’s unlikely that sterling will be badly hit if we see a number lower than 2.6% as for now, expectations of more QE are being held back by the transition to the new Governor.
Per saperne di più »

21/05/2013 @ 07:10 GMT

Fed Focus

Data/Event Risks AUD: The minutes to the May meeting will be released overnight, this being the meeting where rates were cut from 3.00% to 2.75%. Markets will be reading closely for signs of more to come. This in essence would weaken the Aussie, but there are growing signs that the currency could correct higher from an oversold position. USD: No key data, with speech by Chicago Fed President Evans the only focus later on, with market becoming more sensitive to changes in tone from voting Fed members.
Per saperne di più »

20/05/2013 @ 06:54 GMT

Aussie car crash

Data/Event Risks GBP: MPC member Weale speaks early on, but only small risk of an impact on sterling. CAD: Inflation data is released at 12:30 GMT. The CAD has performed well in the face of the stronger dollar, only easing modestly vs. the greenback and holding below the 1.02 level for the most part. Inflation is seen falling further to 0.6% on the headline measure, with the core rate falling to 1.2% (from 1.4%). A weaker number could well serve undermine the resilience of the CAD seen so far this month.
Per saperne di più »

17/05/2013 @ 06:49 GMT

Mixed messages from Japan

Data/Event Risks EUR: The inflation data is the final number, so not likely to be a market moving event, but if revised lower it could dent the euro a little as expectations of further stimulus measures from the ECB (negative deposit rate) resurface. USD: The better weekly claims data last week were a factor in the dollar surge seen into the close, so markets will be more sensitive than normal to the data. The market expects a small move higher, from 323k to 330k.
Per saperne di più »

16/05/2013 @ 07:26 GMT

Cable higher on latest BoE forecasts

GBPUSD around 20 pips higher to 1.5260 on BoE's latest forecasts upgrading growth and downgrading inflation. These latest projections, contained in their quarterly Inflation Report, are seen as reducing the change of more quantitative easing, which three members of the monetary policy committee have been voting for during the February to May period. We wait for next week to see the latest minutes and whether these 3 members have maintained this stance.
Per saperne di più »

15/05/2013 @ 09:39 GMT

Policy and sterling

Data/Event Risks EUR: The GDP data for the Eurozone GDP is set to show a contraction after the German data came out weaker than expected this morning (rising just 0.1%). Eurozone initially seen falling -0.1%, but at least 0.2% decline now looking likely. A weaker number than this would further knock the euro.
Per saperne di più »

15/05/2013 @ 07:24 GMT

The new reality

Data/Event Risks EUR: The ZEW data at 09:00 GMT the main data risk for the single currency. Focus will be on German data after the fall seen in last month’s release (sentiment back below 40 level), with market expecting a bounce back up to this level. Steady (last was 36.3) or lower would knock the euro. EU finance minister meet today, so just worth keeping an eye out for stray comments. Banking union is back on the agenda. AUD: Australia budget presentation at 09:30 GMT (see below).
Per saperne di più »

14/05/2013 @ 07:05 GMT

Syndicate content
live chat