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Aussie car crash

Data/Event Risks GBP: MPC member Weale speaks early on, but only small risk of an impact on sterling. CAD: Inflation data is released at 12:30 GMT. The CAD has performed well in the face of the stronger dollar, only easing modestly vs. the greenback and holding below the 1.02 level for the most part. Inflation is seen falling further to 0.6% on the headline measure, with the core rate falling to 1.2% (from 1.4%). A weaker number could well serve undermine the resilience of the CAD seen so far this month.
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17/05/2013 @ 06:49 GMT

Mixed messages from Japan

Data/Event Risks EUR: The inflation data is the final number, so not likely to be a market moving event, but if revised lower it could dent the euro a little as expectations of further stimulus measures from the ECB (negative deposit rate) resurface. USD: The better weekly claims data last week were a factor in the dollar surge seen into the close, so markets will be more sensitive than normal to the data. The market expects a small move higher, from 323k to 330k.
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16/05/2013 @ 07:26 GMT

Dollar dominance

The dollar is once again dominant at the start of the European session. The weaker than expected German GDP data gave some impetus to the move, pushing EURUSD below the 1.29 level ahead of the Eurozone numbers due to be announced at 09:00 GMT. At the same time, USDJPY has carved out a new high for the year (again) at 102.62, with AUDUSD making a new low at 0.9852. The dollar itself (looking at the DXY dollar index) is 0.40% from the 2012 high (84.1). Breaking this would put the dollar at levels last seen nearly 3 years ago.
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15/05/2013 @ 08:00 GMT

Policy and sterling

Data/Event Risks EUR: The GDP data for the Eurozone GDP is set to show a contraction after the German data came out weaker than expected this morning (rising just 0.1%). Eurozone initially seen falling -0.1%, but at least 0.2% decline now looking likely. A weaker number than this would further knock the euro.
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15/05/2013 @ 07:24 GMT

The new reality

Data/Event Risks EUR: The ZEW data at 09:00 GMT the main data risk for the single currency. Focus will be on German data after the fall seen in last month’s release (sentiment back below 40 level), with market expecting a bounce back up to this level. Steady (last was 36.3) or lower would knock the euro. EU finance minister meet today, so just worth keeping an eye out for stray comments. Banking union is back on the agenda. AUD: Australia budget presentation at 09:30 GMT (see below).
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14/05/2013 @ 07:05 GMT

Cable slipping into close

After a relatively subdued session, cable is falling into the European close, having broke through the 1.53 level to trade us back to levels last seen in the wake of the stronger than expected GDP data released towards the end of last month. No specific factors behind the move beyond order being triggered in a light start of the week session.
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13/05/2013 @ 15:55 GMT

Stronger US sales lift dollar

EURUSD down 20 pips to 1.2950 after stronger US retail sales, rising 0.1%, vs. expectations for 0.3% fall. USDJPY at 102.00, AUDUSD 0.9957.
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13/05/2013 @ 12:34 GMT

The suffering Aussie

Data/Event Risks EUR: Eurozone finance ministers meet later in the day, but there are no potentially market-moving events are on the agenda. Nevertheless, there always remains the risk of stray comments from finance ministers impacting the single currency. USD: Retail sales are seen falling 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% fall in March. Firmer data should be dollar supportive, although the positive relationship between strong data and the dollar has been declining recently.
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13/05/2013 @ 06:51 GMT

Breaking barriers

Data/Event Risks CAD: Labour market data the focus, especially after the disappointing numbers seen recently. The rate seen holding steady at 7.2%, with employment rising 15k (54.5k decline last month). The CAD held up fairly well to the stronger US dollar seen yesterday, but could play catch up with other weaker currencies if labour market data disappoints.
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10/05/2013 @ 07:08 GMT

UK policy unchanged, along with sterling

GBPUSD little changed as Bank of England keeps asset purchases and rates unchanged, as expected. GBPUSD at 1.5580 and EURGBP 0.84390. Recent data has been a little better than expected, undermining the arguments of the 3 members that have voted for more quantitative easing in the February to April meetings. We have to wait for the minutes later this month to see if they changed their vote.
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09/05/2013 @ 11:05 GMT

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